When most of us focus on present events, I am thinking about how the Kurdish future can look like in 1, 5 or 10 years?
There are not many authorities or experts to ask them about the opinion, but with some help of my friends, I got the video with interview with, I can surely say, the biggest authority on Kurdistan and the Kurds.
He is the American author of many books and articles which I totally recommend you, for example “Out of Nowhere”. He spent a lot of time with Kurds of Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. He spoke with many leaders and even made an interview with Abdullah Öcalan in 1998, the PKK leader.
During the interview with John Bersia, he was asked about the future of Syrian, Turkish, Iranian and Iraqi Kurds.
According to Gunter, the future of Syrian Kurds can develop in 3 different directions.
First is, that they will join Turkey. How is that possible? Well, Turkey does not really like Syrian Kurds. As we know the Turkish government is in the peace process with PKK now. Let’s imagine they have agreed a deal. Let’s imagine even more, that Syria falls apart, which is very possible. Thanks to that, as long as PKK is allied with Syrian Kurds, they could join Turkey.
Third way is a creation of the 2nd Kurdish State in Syria. Exactly something that was achieved in Iraq or even more ! A small amount of Syrian oil could be a base for that. Unfortunately, mostly of this oil is controlled by ISIS right now, but if only ISIS will be defended, Kurds could take over the sources.
The future of Iraqi Kurds is pretty simple to predict. It is, As Gunter said, just a matter of time for them to get independence. Actually now, the Iraqi Kurds have some problems with their neighbours and supplies so for the moment it is better for them to maintain the Status Quo. ISIS has attacked in August 2014 and took over many of big cities but Kurds managed to force ISIS to withdraw from these cities, and now gonna start the fights for Mosul.
Gunter doubts that Kurds have any interest in saving Mosul, but they are seduced by USA to do it. Mosul is not a city considered as Kurdish land. The question now is why would they want to die for it, for a land that was given to Shia Arabs ?
The situation in Turkey is even harder. For years it was almost impossible to make any deal for both sides. Last year, the peace process have been started, which is a small step forward. Gunter points out that, a possible future for Turkish Kurds will be a real Democratic Turkey, where Kurds could be willingly and proudly Turkish citizens.
Will there ever be a possibility to link all of the 4 pieces of Kurdish land?
Gunter says, probably not. Just after First World War, the Kurds have been divided into 4 lands. After so many years they have now different ” entity, history and live in different conditions”.
There is also one more land with the 2nd largest group of the Kurds – Iran.
For sure most of You don’t really hear about Iranian Kurds. No rebels. Just quiet. But why is that? According to Gunter the main reason is that Iranian Kurds are ethnically related to the Iranians, not like in situation with the Turks or Arabs. But also, in 1979, the most serious rebellion in Iran, was crushed really hard by Ayatollah Khomeini.
Entire villages and towns were destroyed to force Kurds into submission. He sentenced thousands of men to execution. The Kurdish leader, Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou was murdered. Iranian Kurds have probably never fully recovered after that. Right now their fighters are placed in Iraqi Kurdistan with KRG. It is not like they have no leader now. Of course they have, Mustafa Hijri, but their possibilities are much weaker then Kurds from other countries.
During the interview with Michael Gunter, there was one more great question asked.
Why the Kurdish economy and politics are so good right now in Iraqi Kurdistan?
Gunter says, that the main reason was eliminating Saddam Hussein. He points out, however, the change of Turkish position. The Iraqi Kurds used to be the enemy number one for Turkey, but now it eve cooperates with Hawler (Erbil) and takes part in building the infrastructure there. Turkey even refers to PRESIDENT Barzani, who a few years ago was just a tribe man for Turkish government.
” If you can’t destroy them, cooperate with them “ – is this the real reason?
Let’s look at the other hand. When ISIS attacked Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey did not help at all. Even more, Erdogan, who became so successful, is getting a little bit crazy and he is putting a lot of people into prisons. If we go further, there is even no opposition to Erdogan, so he feels like he can do whatever he wants. No limits.
Gunter quotes what he heard in Turkey: ” We still don’t really trust those Kurds. If there is a chance to have those Kurds smashed by ISIS, maybe we should let it happen. Let them destroy themselves and let’s take our benefits out of that”.
Gunter asked also Turks why they didn’t help Kurds with ISIS, and he get the answer:
” Why should we save a Kurdish group allied with PKK “ and it is all in the time of “peace process” with PKK.
How do You respond to that ?